6.3 Million – The Mac Observer – AppleTV 4 Jailbreak (appletv4jailbreak.com)

Apple has been coy in the past about disclosing its sales of Apple TVs. Data has come out in bits and pieces. However, to gain insight into the prospects for an Apple HDTV, it seems timely to estimate how Apple has done with the Apple TV over the years.

When the first generation Apple TV shipped on January 8, 2007, it was met with enthusiasm by early adopters. Even so, it was rather large, ran hot, and there were some difficulties for some customers getting purchases reliably synced back to a Mac. Nevertheless, so it was a great first effort.

First Generation

The early estimates for the sales were probably optimistic. In October 2008, I used two different methods for estimating the total sales as of that date. In Apple’s press announcement from June 2008, there was the revelation that Apple was selling or renting 50,000 movies per day. With an additional assumptions, and a second method based on estimated retail store sales, I backed out an aggregate estimate of about 400,000 Apple TV’s sold in the first 19 months. Other estimates were much higher, but didn’t publish a methodology.

Image Credit: Apple

This amounts to an average rate of about 21K units per months for 19 months. It’s reasonable to assume that the initial enthusiasm tapered off, but was offset and supported by continued Apple marketing. 21K per month amounts to about 250,000 in calendar 2007.

Apple continued to be coy about sales over the next few years. In order to hit the 400,000 mark in 19 months, Apple must have sold another 250,000 in 2008.

2009 is murky. It’s reasonable to assume that Apple picked up some momentum, and the only reasonable thing to do is figure in some growth based on what we know from 2010’s number and back that into 2009. In the fiscal fourth quarter (July-Sep) of 2010, Apple sold 250,000 units, or 83K/month. On a linear backtrack to 2009, we get 52K/mo * 12 mo = 624K. That suggests iterating to a slightly higher sales per month in 2008, but that’s a 2nd order effect, and I’ll ignore it. (in fact, the whole process has iterative aspects.)

Second Generation

2010 is easier because on Sept 1, 2010, Apple introduced the 2nd generation model with significant improvements and numbers were more forthcoming. The new model could work on its own as a streaming device, and one didn’t have to own a PC or Mac to operate it. As a result, sales took off. Between Sep 1, 2010 and April 2011, Apple sold a million units. Assuming that sales of the original Apple TV had been rising in 2010 and were averaging 50-60K units month we get 60K * 6 in first 6 months + 250K in FYQ4 + 250K/month (2nd gen) * 4 remaining months = 1.6 million total units in CY2010.

Image Credit: Apple

In 2011, Apple was doing much better with…

https://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/estimated_apple_tv_sales_to_date_6.3_million
AppleTV 4 Jailbreak (appletv4jailbreak.com)